Liikevaihto $482.2 miljoonaa (-18%)
Operatiivinen kassavirta $147.1 miljoonaa (+160%)
Liikevoitto $130.6 miljoonaa (-37.5%)
Nettotulos $96.6 miljoonaa (-20%)
EPS $0.86 (-20%)
P/E(ttm) 5.7
Tase
Varat
Lyhytaikaiset 1,245.7 miljoonaa
Kaikki $4,599.0 miljoonaa
Velat
Lyhytaikaiset 540.5 miljoonaa
Kaikki $1,701.6 miljoonaa
Omapääoma $2,897.4 miljoonaa
P/B 0.85
Meriporien käyttöaste toisella kvartaalilla 93%, maaporien 74%
Näkymistä:
"Looking forward, we expect that excess rig capacity will continue to put downward pressure on day rates. Though we are seeing signs of a pick-up in drilling demand in certain areas, there are still more available rigs than drilling tenders. Nonetheless, we continue to believe that the quality of our rigs and our operational reputation will enable us to maintain above-average utilization and day rates for our available jack-ups. Rowan has weathered many down cycles in our 86-year history, and our strong liquidity following our recent note offering puts us in an excellent position to get through this one. We remain very confident in the long-term prospects for offshore drilling in general and for jack-ups in particular."
Tiedote
2 comments:
TUESDAY, JULY 28, 2009
INVESTORS' SOAPBOX AM
Jackup Drilling Market Nearing Bottom
FBR Capital sees utilization stabilizing toward to the end of the year
We are upgrading Ensco International (ticker: ESV), upgrading Rowan (RDC) and reiterating our Outperform rating on Transocean (RIG). A sharp increase in jackup tender activity suggests that the market is nearing a bottom.
We expect utilization in the global jackup fleet to stabilize toward the end of the year as there are increased customer inquiries for jackup work. The deepwater market has shown evidence of firming, as well. The recent contract for the Cajun Express highlights the strength of the high-end deepwater market, and we are consequently increasing our rate forecasts for these rigs by $75,000 per day.
We believe Ensco will realize the most benefit from stabilization in the jackup market. The company has a significant amount of stacked jackups, as well as many slated to roll off contract by the end of the year. Although we expect cash flow to fall in the coming quarters as these rigs idle, the potential for new contracts in the early part of next year should bolster investor sentiment and provide support for the stock. Consequently, we are upgrading Ensco to Outperform from Market Perform and are raising our price target to $49 from $36. Our price target is derived through a discounted-cash-flow (DCF) analysis and implies 6.6 times 2010 enterprise value/earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EV/EBITDA).
We are upgrading Rowan to Market Perform [from Underperform] and are raising our price target to $20 [from $14]. The company's jackup fleet is largely high end, which has helped to maintain relatively higher rates of utilization than some peers. The increase in jackup activity and stabilization in the market bode well for Rowan. We do not, however, expect any significant day-rate appreciation for the higher-end rigs. Furthermore, weakness in the manufacturing division, as well as low utilization for the company's land-drilling fleet, will likely continue to weigh heavily on the stock. Our price target is derived through a DCF analysis and implies 4.7 times 2010 EV/EBITDA.
A bottom is in sight for the jackup market. The overall market continues to decline as numerous jackups roll off contract and idle, but a noticeable increase in tender activity foreshadows stabilization toward the end of the year. We have already seen several tenders for significant term work in major markets such as the Middle East, and inquiries to rig owners are picking up. We believe that as many of these come to fruition, global-fleet utilization should stabilize. Demand is far short of a rebound in day rates, however, and we continue to believe current levels will persist for some time.
Transocean has meaningful exposure to the deepwater market, and the recent strong contract for the Cajun Express highlights a firming in rates for these higher-end rigs. Furthermore, Transocean should see strength as the company has robust cash flows secured by strong and diversified backlog. Free cash flow (FCF) should grow through 2010 as capital expenditures subside and new high-end rigs commence operations at premium day rates. The stock is currently trading at a 6% FCF yield, and we anticipate the company will be constructive with its growing cash balance.
The high-end floater market has shown particular resiliency as highlighted by last week's roughly $500,000-per-day contract for the Cajun Express. Although few data points exist, the contract, combined with an uptick in activity from independent and major operators, leads us to believe $60 and above oil will provide meaningful support to the fifth-/sixth-generation market. We expect a sharp differentiation, however, between newer and high-end rigs versus older upgraded rigs. We forecast day rates on a rig-by-rig basis and have increased most high-end rigs to $475,000 per day, while increasing relatively newer fourth-generation rigs by $25,000-$50,000 per day for a range of $400 per day to $450,000 per day. Lower-end floaters, such as those built in the 1970s and 1980s, should continue to see significant pressure.
Earnings reflect continued cost-cutting, while management highlighted increased activity. Cost reduction continues to be the theme this quarter as Noble (NE), Diamond Offshore Drilling (DO) and Ensco all beat estimates through lower-than-expected operating expenses. Meanwhile, the management teams of each company noted an increase in customer inquiries for work starting at the earliest late this year.
Noble reported EPS of $1.54 versus our estimate of $1.48, Diamond reported EPS of $2.79 versus our estimate of $2.65, and Ensco reported EPS of $1.59 versus our estimate of $1.48.
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