Esan ura nousussa? Laskussa? Vakaasti vaakatasossa?

Transocean Ltd. (NYSE: RIG) (SIX: RIGN) announced today that Esa Ikäheimonen will succeed Gregory L. Cauthen as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer on November 15, 2012

RIG on tällä hetkellä markkina-arvoltaan pienempi kuin SDRL, joten onko tämä askel taaksepäin? Mutta Ikäheimonen lähti Seadrilistä ilmeisesti omasta tahdostaan.

Transu pistää hunajapurnukan kannen kiinni

RIG:

"The Board of Directors will not propose a dividend at the 2012 Annual General Meeting of Shareholders"

Jussilla ollut korvat höröllä?

Tai sitten tutulta pankkiirilta vähän lipsahtanut:

Perfekt timing for Fredriksen

I dagene før verdens største riggselskap bød på Aker Drilling, kjøpte en ukjent investor nesten fem prosent av aksjene i selskapet og ble nest største aksjonær. Dagens Næringsliv får lørdag bekreftet det flere kilder har spekulert i: at det var John Fredriksen-kontrollerte Seadrill, verdens nest største riggselskap, som skjuler seg bak den ukjente investoren...

Eli SDRL on elokuun 2. päivästä alkaen pussittanut Aker Drillingin osakkeita ja onnistunut ahtamaan kasseihinsa melkein 5% yhtiön osakekannasta ennen RIGin tekemää tarjousta. 150 miljoonaa kruunua eli melkein 30 dollaria tulee Seadrilille pikavoittoa Aker Drillingin osakkeilla, ellei sitten virallinen valvoja totea että Fredriksen on doupannut korvansa. Seadrillin osakkenomistajan kannalta melko merkityksetön summma(noin 5 senttiä per lappu ).

Transocean ostaa Aker Drillingin

Transocean Announces an All Cash Voluntary Offer to Acquire 100 Percent of Aker Drilling for NOK 26.50 per Share

Transocean Services AS ("Transocean" or the "Company"), a wholly owned subsidiary of Transocean Ltd. (NYSE: RIG) (SIX: RIGN), today announced an all cash voluntary offer (the "Offer") for 100 percent of the shares of Aker Drilling ASA ("Aker Drilling") for NOK 26.50 per share. The Board of Directors of Aker Drilling has unanimously recommended that its shareholders accept the Offer.

On August 14, 2011, Transocean entered into an irrevocable agreement with Aker Capital AS to acquire 41 percent of the outstanding shares of Aker Drilling through (a) the purchase of 14,959,740 shares by an affiliate of Transocean, representing 4.99 percent of the outstanding shares, and (b) a pre-commitment agreement for the remaining 107,873,858 shares, representing 36.1 percent of the outstanding shares, to be purchased by Transocean pursuant to the Offer. In addition, Transocean has received irrevocable pre-commitments of 19.5 percent of the outstanding shares of Aker Drilling from other shareholders, including funds managed by TPG-Axon Capital, bringing the total irrevocable commitments to 60.5 percent of the Aker Drilling outstanding shares.

The Offer price indicates an equity market capitalization of approximately NOK 7.93 billion, or $1.43 billion, assuming an exchange rate of NOK 5.53 to USD 1.00, which represents a 62 percent premium to Aker Drilling's 30-day average price of NOK 16.39 per share. Additionally, Aker Drilling has net debt of $0.80 billion...

AKD:n helmikuisessa IPO:ssa hinta oli 19 kruunua, joten kelpo tuoton saavat antiin osallistuneet. Osakkeen ATH(siis tämän uuden listautumiskauden) taitaa olla noin 21 kruunua eli kaikki puolen vuoden aikana omistajiksi tulleet tienaavat takuulla.

John Fredriksen yritti napata Akerin alukset taskuunsa ennen listautumista, joten ilmassa leijuu pienen pieni mahdollisuus että hän yrittää sotkea tätäkin viritelmää.

RIG/Q2

Liikevaihto $2,334MM (-6%)
Liiketoiminnan rahnavirta $340MM (-73%)
Liikevoitto $391MM (-59%)
Liikevoittomarginaali 17%
Netto tulos $155MM (-78%)
EPS $0.48 (-78%)

P/E (TTM) 2737

Tase
Varat
Likvidit $6,738MM(käteinen $3,389MM)
Kaikki $36,936MM

Velat
Lyhytaikaiset $4,484MM
Kaikki $16,050MM

Omapääoma $20,873MM

P/B 0.83

Tiedote

P/E on itse laskettu, mutta sen pitäisi olla oikein. Viime vuoden lopun jackuppien arvon alaskirjaus ja Macondo-kulut($2.65 ja $0.35 per osake) vääristää lukua. Ilman tuota P/E taitaisi olla on noin 20. Tase on vahvahko, mutta alaskirjaukset eivät välttämättä ole ohi. Ei ole mielestäin ostohinnoissa.

Laivaston käyttöaste oli 55% ja liikevaihdontehokkuus(kuinka suuri osa nimellisistä päivätaksoista pystyttiin muuttamaan liikevaihdoksi) oli 92%. Molemmissa on parannettavaa.

CC:ssä yritettiin ankarista pistää positiivista spinniä yhtiön tilanteeseen hehkuttamalla äskettäin saatuja uusia sopimuksia. Näkymät RIGilläkin melko positiiviset.

RIGin lautalle uusi kontrahti

Transocean Ltd. Announces Transocean Leader Awarded Three-Year Contract

Transocean Ltd. / Transocean Ltd. Announces Transocean Leader Awarded Three-Year Contract Processed and transmitted by Thomson Reuters. The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement.

ZUG, SWITZERLAND--(Marketwire - February 9, 2011) - Transocean Ltd. (NYSE: RIG) (SIX: RIGN) today announced that its high-specification semisubmersible rig Transocean Leader has been awarded a three-year contract by a subsidiary of Statoil ASA for operations in Norway. The contract, which has a one-year extension option, is expected to commence in direct continuation of the rig's current contract. Estimated contract revenues related to the three-year contract are approximately $427 million. Estimated contract revenues represent the maximum amount of revenues that may be earned in the firm contract period, excluding revenues for mobilization, cost escalations, customer reimbursed equipment and miscellaneous adjustments.

Taksa on $390,000 mikä meinaa 15% laskua nykyiseen sopimukseen nähden. Pituus on yhtiön kannalta varsin posiitivinen, sillä sopimuksien kestot ovat olleet lyhenemässä Norjan mannerlaatallakin.

Lievästi vanhentuneita "uutisia"

Inn i rigg igjen

Kiinalaisille pari vuotta sitten myydyn Awilcon perustaja on ostanut Transoceanin kaksi midwater-semiä. Alunperin Songan piti ostaa nuo, mutta rahoitusvaikeudet estivät oston. A.Wilhelmsen oli muistaakseni myös Oceanrigin perustaja. Uusi yhtiö ei ole ainakaan vielä julkinen.

Exxon looks to sign near-$1 bln Arctic rig -source

RIG kertoi jo Q3-CC:ssä että sillä oli pitkälle edenneet neuvottelut arktisen aluksen rakentamisesta ja nyt asiakkaalla on nimi.

The West Atlas Emergency Call

CGX Energy, partners renew exploration license off Guyana
Tuolla on kehitteillä konsortio lautan hankintaa varten. Veden syvyys muistaakseni 300 jalkaa eli premium/ultra pitää bukata töihin.

Growth of the NOC

"In the next five years, NOCs will change the face of the domestic and international oil and gas sector"

NEW DRILLING CONTRACT FOR BREDFORD DOLPHIN

22.4 miljoonaa USD/ 60 päivää= $373 000. Tämä menee täysin yli oman ymmärryksen. Onko maailmassa todellakin noin vähän Norjan laatalla toimivia aluksia että siellä saa tuollaisia dr:ä? Transoceanilla on useampi teknisesti vastaava alus, jotka ovat vailla töitä, joten miksi he eivät tunke aluksia tuonne. NCS:llä on Länsi-Afrikan jälkeen maailman korkeimmat aluksien käyttökustannukset, mutta silti nuo operointimarginaalit ovat suuria(Länsi-Afrikan korkeuden takana on lähinnä kai rikollisuuden aiheuttamat turvallisuusriskit). RIGin semi John Shaw tienaa brittien puolella $249 000 ja päivittäiset kustannukset ovat n. $75 000, jolloin tuosta jää 174 000. Bredfordin kustannukset maks n. $130 000, jolloin yli jää $240 000. Ovatko tuollaiset erot kestäviä toimivilla markkinoilla? Toimivatko markkinat tuolla? Osaako joku selittää?

RIGin Celtic Sealle uusi sopimus

Transocean Ltd. Announces Deepwater Semisubmersible Rig GSF Celtic Sea Awarded Three-Year Contract

"Transocean Ltd. (NYSE:RIG) announced today that its moored deepwater semisubmersible rig GSF Celtic Sea has been awarded a three-year contract by an undisclosed customer for operations in Angola commencing in the second quarter of 2011. Estimated contracted revenues related to the three-year contract are approximately $350 million. Estimated contract revenues represent the maximum amount of revenues that may be earned in the firm contract period, excluding revenues for mobilization, cost escalations, customer reimbursed equipment and miscellaneous adjustments.

The GSF Celtic Sea is one of 16 deepwater floaters in the Transocean fleet. Capable of operating in water depths up to 5,750 feet and drilling wells 25,000 feet deep, the GSF Celtic Sea entered service in 1982 and was upgraded in 1998"

Dr n.320 000 dollaria, edellisen sopimuksen $486 000. Kolmen vuoden sopimus viittaisi että taksojen lasku on ohitse.

Poimintoja Transoceanin CC:stä:

Petrobras:

"While we are currently reviewing the challenges associated with this tender, we are very interested in participating in this opportunity and increasing our presence in Brazil.

Additionally, we believe that Petrobras will require more ultra-deepwater and deepwater rigs from the existing available fleet in the near term to continue their exploration and appraisal drilling in the conventional and pre-salt areas."

Deepwater

"Turning to the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, Chevron has recently issued an inquiry for two 10,000 foot units and we believe that with the recent Tiber discovery, there may also be room for an additional unit for BP.

We also expect incremental ultra-deepwater demand as a result of the recent drilling successes in Angola, Ghana and Sierra Leone. Other emerging markets such as Israel, Mexico, Indonesia and the Black Sea will further add to the opportunity set that continues to support our belief in the long-term deepwater fundamentals

In the near term, however, as Bob mentioned, the demand for units of 5,000 foot water depth capability remains weak as the majority of the current deepwater tenders have requirements greater than 5,000 feet."

Midwater

"Moving on to the worldwide midwater floater market, the market continues to be a bit soft with 13 units already stacked with three more completing their current contracts in 2009.

While supply continues to outpace demand, we are experiencing more interest than the previous quarter. We also had the opportunity to extend some of our units as a result of our customers' successful drilling efforts. With the increase in the pricing of natural gas in the U.K., tendering activity in this market segment can improve quickly. Other than a few tenders in Asia-Pacific, the remaining markets have been a bit slow to respond, especially West Africa."

Fasineeraava tiedon pala:

"I assume you're talking about the Arctic rig, so I will let Steven answer that question.

Steven Newman

This is something we have been working on for a couple of years now and our team has done a great job in terms of assessing the market potential in the Arctic, understanding exactly what it would take to operate up there, then developing a design that meets our requirements, our customers' requirements and the expectations of the regulatory authorities. So, we have progressed that design fairly far along, we're in very developed discussions with a customer. As Bob said in his opening remarks, we're hopeful that we'll succeed in securing a contract to actually build an Arctic class vessel by the end of the year."

CC: MP3 tai transskripti

RIG Q3

Liikevaihto $2,823 milj. (-12%)
Liiketoiminnankassavirta $1,406 milj. (+11%)
Liikevoitto $957 milj. (-31%)
Lv-marginaali 34%
Nettotulos $710 milj. (-33%)
EPS $2.19 (-34%)

P/E(ttm) 8.34

Tase
Varat
Likvidit $4,603 milj.
Kaikki $36,018 milj.

Velat
Lyhytaikaiset $2,584 milj.
Kaikki $16,312 milj

Omapääoma $19,706 milj.

P/B 1.38

Tiedote

Taseessa on 8 miljardia GlobalSantaFe ostosta syntynyttä goodwillia ja GSF:n jackup-armadan arvo lienee hieman laskenut.

Transoceanille uusi sopimus

Midwwater-semi Actinialle(valmistumisvuosi 1982, max operointi syvyys 1500 jalkaa ja harsh environment) viiden kuukauden sopimus Myanmariin $206 000 dr:llä. Sanktiot eivät taida koskea sveitsiläisiäkään yhtiöitä.

Upstream:

"While the price is below the going rate in other regions, it compares with the $190,000 per day Actinia earned for nearly three years in India through July, reported Reuters."

Otsikkoerä

Apache to tap Argentina unconventional gas

Saudis ask for aid if world cuts dependence on oil

Transocean sets aside more jack-up rigs

ExxonMobils quits Hungarian shale test

KNOC poised to start shopping spree

Deepwater Horizonille jatkosopimus

Deepwater Horizon stays on with BP

"UK supermajor BP has handed a three-year contract extension to Transocean's ultra-deep water semi-submersible rig Deepwater Horizon.

The extension - covering work in the US Gulf of Mexico - takes effect from September next year.

Transocean said its estimated contracted revenues for the three-year contract extension are about $544 million, equating to a dayrate of roughly $497,000..."

Dr ei ole kiinteä vaan perustuu RIGin vastaavien aluksien GOMin sopimuksiin. Aiemman sopimuksen dr muoduistui samoilla perusteilla ja on n. $460-515 000, eli suurin piirtein samassa tasosssa on uusikin.

Uutista pukkaa

Transocean eyes big gigs

"Offshore drilller Transocean expects to sign several more deep-water contracts in the next several months, its retiring chief executive said today..."

Pemex has 'doubts' about Chicontepec

"Mexican energy giant Pemex needs to find a profitable way to develop its Chicontepec field, newly appointed chief Juan Jose Suarez Coppel said..."

Conoco Eyes Poland's Promising Shale Gas

"Citing ConocoPhillips' vice president of exploration, Reuters reports that the third-largest U.S. oil major has signed an exploration deal to explore for natural gas in Poland's promising shale acreage.

Shale reserves are estimated to contain "vast amounts" of natural gas reserves, which are tapped using horizontal drilling methods..."

Alla oleva slide on kähvelletty COPin 09/09/09 Barclays-presentaatiosta(löytyy täältä):



LISÄYS(13/09/09)
TSX-listattu BNK Petroleum hankki kesäkuussa 700 tuhatta eekkeriä exploration-maata Puolasta ja heidänkin kohteena Silurian Shale ja maakaasu.

Ensimmäinen erä poraajille

"Transocean Ltd. Announces Ultra-Deepwater Semisubmersible Rig Sedco Express Awarded Contract by Noble Energy

"ZUG, Switzerland, Aug. 25, 2009 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Transocean Ltd. (NYSE:RIG) today announced that a subsidiary of Noble Energy, Inc. (NYSE:NBL) has awarded a 455-day contract for the ultra-deepwater semisubmersible rig Sedco Express. Estimated contracted revenues related to the 455-day contract term are approximately $241 million. Estimated contract revenues represent the maximum amount of revenues that may be earned in the firm contract period, excluding revenues for mobilization, cost escalations, customer reimbursed equipment and miscellaneous adjustments. The contract term is expected to commence in the third quarter of 2010 following the completion of the rig's current contract, maintenance work and mobilization. "

Vuodenvaihteen tienoilta lähtien on udw-poraajien ja operaattorien välillä kilvoiteltu siitä kumman pokka pitää ja tarve on suurempi, ensimmäinen erä näyttäisi menevän selvästi poraajille. Sedco Expressin uuden sopimuksen dr on ~$530 000. Sopimuksien pituudet ovat lyhenemässä ilmeisesti öljyn hinnan suuntaan liittyvän epävarmuuden vuoksi.

Transocean CC excerpts

Shallow water
"We currently have 18 jackups idle or stacked, plus one that is just about to come off contract and will stack making it 19. That is up from nine at our last call and three at our year-end call. As I think I mentioned last time, we expect to see more stacked before the year is out resulting in as many as 25 or 26 jackups stacked by year-end and maybe a bit more."

Midwater
"In the midwater market and conventional deepwater markets, we have seen a slowdown in bid activity. We had four midwater floaters stacked at the end of the quarter and a fifth has just come down as moving to a stacking location. We have another three midwater rigs coming available shortly and could see some of those stack also. I will let Terry Bonno give you some thoughts on the prospects for these rigs and on the two deepwater rigs we have coming available in 2009; Sedco 709 and the Rather."

Deepwater
"The good news is the continuing strength of the ultra-deepwater market. We remain very optimistic about both the near-term and long-term outlook for this market. You saw our announcement of the contract with Petrobras for the Cajun Express, an 8500 foot capable rig, at over $500,000 per day starting early next year for three years. We have eight other ultra-deepwater rigs coming available between now and the first quarter of 2012 and we are already in discussions with customers on opportunities for most of these rigs."

"We continue to generate significant cash flow supported by our $33.7 billion of revenue backlog as shown on chart four."
"This backlog represents roughly $17 billion of free cash flow backlog versus almost $12.6 billion of face value of our debt."

We continue to be optimistic on the deepwater opportunity in the near and long-term with Petrobras leading the charge as they continue to contract deepwater units to meet their immediate demand. The Cajun Express contract for three years convertible to five years strengthens our position and relationship with Petrobras in Brazil and it is further evidence of the long-term strength of the deepwater market. We expect to see more contracts for existing rigs executed in Brazil over the next several months.

We are already in discussions with multiple clients about the units that come available in 2010 and '11. West Africa tendering has been very active with a total of 36 rig years of actual tenders and pre-qualification with start dates commencing in 2010 and '11. Additionally, ONGC has come to tender with another deepwater rig need in 12,000 foot water depths with a recently closed 10,000 foot tender yet to be awarded. With the relative stability of the oil price since our last conference call we have seen some optimism on the part of our customers and the conversations we are having with them regarding our available ultra-deepwater unit in '10 and '11 are gaining momentum.

Unfortunately, we have experienced a gap in demand for capable units in 5,000 foot water depth. As the majority of the current deepwater tenders have requirements greater than 5,000 feet.

"So, I suspect it is going to be difficult for us to be successful in acquiring some of those current newbuilds that are deepwater capable because it seems like everybody is just as optimistic about the outlook for that market as we are. Hence, there doesn't seem to be a lot of appetite to discount the prices very much."

"The jackup prices, as we said, we are going to get into a market where there will be significant discounts on the jackups."

"Nobody has really built any midwater rigs other than a couple that I think that are targeted for Norway, and I don't expect anybody to build any midwater rigs in the future.

So, if the oil prices stabilize at $70, $75, $80 or more, my guess is, most of what people were drilling for in the midwater a year ago when demand was high, is likely to come back."

"We've been working on our Arctic design for a couple of years now. We've progressed it quite far. We are in fairly substantive discussions with the shipyard and with the equipment suppliers in order to finalize the design, and hopefully get to a point where we have economics that we can go back to our customer with. At the same time we are having very substantive conversations with customers about interest in that design and interest in pursuing Arctic drilling opportunities."

Conference Call(audio) and Transcript

The jackup market looks mighty depressed into the foreseeable future.

Cajunille kontrahti

Petrobras on tehnyt sopimuksen Transoceanin kanssa Cajun Expressin käytöstä. Sopimus on kolmevuotinen ja se voidaan konvertoida viisivuotiseksi. Päivätaksa on $510K tai $490K, jos optio käytetään, C-E:n tämän hetkisen Chevronin-sopimuksen dr on 490 000 dollaria. Cajunin max. operointi syvyys on 8500 jalkaa.

Päivätaksat matkaavat kaakkoon, mutta varsin varovaisesti. Yli 400 000 dollarin päivätaksoilla marginaalit ovat vielä lähes kaikilla mahtavia(>30%).

Transocean Q1

Revenues $3,118 million (-)

Operating income $1,319 million (-15.5%)

Net cash provided by operating activities $1,441 million (-3%)

Net income $939 million (-18.5%)

Net margin 30%

EPS $2.93 (-18%)

Balance sheet

Assets
Current $5,215 million
Total $ 35,259 million(including goodwill $8,134 million)

Liabilities
Current $3,789 million
Total $17,139 million

Equity $18,120 million

P/E 6, P/B 1.32

Contract backlog $35.8 billion

Release

Long on deepwater

Transocean's CEO Bob Long's comments on deepwater:

Positive Long Term Deepwater Outlook

Near Term
* Limited availability of deepwater capacity until 2011
* Strong recent fixtures
* Vantage/Petrobras eight-year contract
* Dryships/Petrobras three-year contract
* Uncertainty in the markets is preventing near term commitments by operators
* Decreased urgency to sign forward start contracts

Long Term
* Expect stronger deepwater rig demand than previously anticipated
* Industry fundamentals will remain strong

Transocean's Howard Weil presentation(.pdf)

RIG jackup contract terminated

Transocean cold stacks rig after Petrobel termination

"ALEXANDRIA, EGYPT: Petrobel, an Egyptian oil company jointly owned by the Egyptian General Petroleum Corp. and Eni, has terminated its contract for Transocean jackup GSF Key Singapore. Transocean is challenging the validity of this termination.."

It is difficult to draw any conclusion out this since the information provided is very limited. This is the third Transocean contract that has been terminated pre-maturely, the two others were terminated due to financial woes of the customers.