Explorers - be good or be lucky!
"The characteristics of such campaigns – the campaigns conducted by “Winners” - seem to be:
1. The inventory of potential new (frontier) basins and plays is long and updated – and ranked - routinely as new facts emerge, for example in the form of sea-bed cores, geophysical data and early wells.
2. As basins and plays mature, after the first one or two discoveries have been made, the prospect inventory is long and updated – and ranked – routinely as new facts emerge.
3. There is trust in the right technology – the combination of 3D seismic and attributes/AVO has enabled extraordinary exploration success rates for example in deep water Angola, Ghana and Uganda.
4. In general, there is a wariness of prevailing technical wisdoms – although we could have a great debate as to whether they are more or less dangerous than ‘wisdom’ coming from Head Office! Wisdom, “Know How” and new ideas tend to exist in, and arise from, the lower reaches of organisations – any ranking (see 1., 2. and 3. above) is a collective exercise.
5. Ultimately the exploration budget is - and should be - constrained, forcing only the top-ranked basins, plays and prospects to be pursued."
"The “Losers” will depend on luck, or believe they can. I’m sure there are many ways to lose….but here are just a couple:
1. For a Major, with plenty of staff and “Know How”, nonetheless rely on an ‘Exploration Supremo’ who selects two or three opportunities and says “one of these will work!”
2. Be a small company, with no/few staff and little “Know How”, and rely on one play, or a small number of prospects, ‘working’.
and finally
3. Be an investor in several small companies (all with executive packages, corporate jets etc to pay for) in the belief that a ‘portfolio effect’ will somehow get ‘luck’ on your side!"
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