Deethree myyty. 80% bruttona noin puolessa vuodessa. Minulle ihan hyvä tuotto. Syyt myynnille: DTX:llä on tukeva maablokki rajan tuntumassa, mutta suuri osa siitä on oletetun fairwayn ulkopuolella(Bowoodilla on vanhojen kaivojen perusteella paras kanadalaisista junioreista) ja yhtiöllä ei ole juurikaan omaisuutta backstopperina(toisin kuin Argosylla tai Rosettalla), jos Exshaw-osoittautuu arvottomaksi. Lisäksi salkku alkoi olla liiaksi vivutettu tähän resurssiin.
Argosyt ovat plussalla melkein 200%, mutta en vieläkään halua myydä yhtään osaketta. Aika näyttää olisiko pitänyt.
Lisäys 08.01.2011
DTX:n arvostustaso
$248,000 per virtaava boe
Rahavirta: P/FF(2010 ennuste 12 senttiä osake) 44
Reservit(P+P): $82 per boe
Kaasuiseksi yhtiöksi todella kallis kaikilla mittareilla. Tämän vuoden etsintäporauksen tulokset ovat heikkoja: 12 kaivoa, joista puolet kuivia ja onnistuneetkin kaivot tuottavat heikosti. Syy ei näytä olevan yhtiön johdossa, vaan alueen geologian tavanomainen potentiaali on yksinkertaisesti heikko.
Mitä tulee tuohon Exshaw/Big Valley/ Wabamun(Alberta Bakken) potentiaaliin niin suurin osa Etelä-Albertassa em. muodostelmista tuottaneista vanhoista kaivoista on tuon fairwayn länsipuolella, kun DTX:n maa on kaistan keskekellä ja itäpuolella. Lisäksi paineet ovat parhaimmat Albertassa kaistaleen luoteisosissa, jossa
Dee:llä ei ole lainkaan oikeuksia.
26 comments:
Hello, I like your blog. I hope you don't mind me leaving a comment, and in english too. I have a hard time translating your info, but I find it valuable - wish I had found this blog sooner.
I have been following the SAB Bakken play for about 11 months now.
I wanted to tell you that I heard a rumour from someone that works in the services industry that the two CPG wells close to the border are doing 700 bopd after clean up on a restricted choke, with almost no water. This fellow heard it from another service industry worker that worked on those wells and was now working next to this fellow in another area. He has proven reliable in the past.
If this turns out to be true, the play is better than I thought, and I am very long on DTX, GSY, and BWD.
Is this the type of results you would have expected? You sound like you work in the industry some how. You have a lot of knowledge in oil and gas.
Comments are welcome regardless of the language they're in.
In the field of oil&gas I'm a pure layman, but most of my money is invested in that sector.
The 700 bbls is a credible number, but one has to keep in mind that the reservoir is overpressured near the border and most of DTX's acreage is outside the overpressure zone. You wouldn't happen to know which two of the three CPG wells the rumor refers to? I'd imagine that it is 00/15-01-002-20w4/0 and 00/14-07-001-21w4/0 since they are relatively close to one another and the 00/03-08-001-18w4/0 would seem to be on the wrong side of the normal/overpressure line.
I will post his 2 comments:
"Two CPG wells drilled in Southern Alberta Bakken are flowing at a rate of 700+ BOPD choked back. This occurred when flowing back the frac fluid and a coil tubing unit on site. This info came from SE Sask service company working for CPG. I am a SE Sask person so do not have the locations in S. Alberta. The rumour is now the talk of the town."
(I suspect this explains the most recent big pop in DTX price about one week ago.)
and
"I asked the same question. Yes all load out and this is new oil. It flowed after a quarter of the load was out. The well gave a hard kick. Each well is about 700+ BOPD. The actual number was 35 BOPH at 98% oil 10/64 choke setting. Thats all I know. Maybe someone can confirm the locations."
(I especially like the 10/64 choke size - very restricted. This suggests a well that could possibly AOF at 1500 or more, but with damage to near well bore likely. This suggests very high EUR's to me. WAG - perhaps 750m bo per well.)
It is only my assumption that these two wells are the two closest to the border, given the timing. The two CPG wells at Barrons (the northern area) were only spud Dec 5th and 6th, so I think it may be a tad early for those to have results. Even a very experienced operator will take the first several holes nice and slow. I agree about the pressure in the fmn. I am working on the idea that DTX may have around 2 townships in the over pressure area, and another 2 townships in the normal pressure area. As it is very early in the play, the details of the formation is not yet firm by any means. For example, I doubt even the industry folk foresaw, just two years ago, the geographical extent of bakken drilling in the Williston Basin seen today. The technology continues to improve, thus making more 'moose pasture' now prospective. I am more concerned about thermal maturity, in respect of DTX's land prospectivity. Recall, overpressure is nice but not vital for economic production.
On that note I recall ROSE was at first more worried that their land may be in the gas window. When they confirmed that it was in the oil window (drilling the first three wells) they commented that this was because the area had been uplifted long ago, and I suppose this prevented it from being in the cooking stage for some of the time it has been buried, thus preventing the oil turning to gas.
Sorry if I am repeating things previously discussed here, as I have not yet had time to read all your blog posts and the related comments.
Thanks for letting me join in on your conversation - I appreciate it. I am also just a layman/private investor.
No I don't know which wells. I didn't know of the third well in the south. I assume these results were in the south. I know of 2 wells at Barrons in the north, but I don't think it is them, as they were spud 1st week of Dec. Too soon for results there.
I will have to look for the third spud you refer.
Thanks for allowing me join your conversation - I appreciate it.
Although I indentified the play and many of the "players"(largely in co-operation with an American friend)(and bought into these companies(ROSE, DTX, GSY, BWD)) relatively early I doubt that the old blog posts are useful anymore at this point, but if there are some blog posts that you'd like me translate, I'm happy to do so.
The third well I'm referring is(or at least was) officially operated by Antelope Land Services but CPG is thought be the actual operator. The 00/14-07-001-21w4/0 well was also originally licensed by Antelope, but the well is now officially operated by CPG.
Thought I would note the most recent comments from the same poster.
"CPG drilled two flowing wells in the Bakken S. Alberta where LEG has a huge land position. Following their recent drilling results the wells are all initially producing at 250 BOPD."
Just so you have the data. I thought the 700 bopd was after test - I guess not. Hard to determine what is going on, as the companies are saying almost nothing wrt results.
Thank you! I see that these are Poise's comments from Stockhouse(I've spammed the GSY and WSX boards occasionally(the nick begins with a J) ). In the past he(?) has had a tendency to exaggerate or maybe his sources are not all that reliable. For example a couple of months ago on the Torquay Oil board Poise claimed that a Frobisher well was producing 250 barrels per day, yet a company release published later said that the well's 5 day IP was only 140 bbls per day. Torquay has 100% WI in that well so the difference isn't due to gross-net numbers. And that isn't the only time he has posted less than accurate information.
GSY's presentations state that the expected IP from their first horizontal is 150 boes. Considering that the well costs about $3 million to drill and complete I sure hope that estimate turns out to be a (very) conservative estimate.
I'm not sure if I interpret the log data on Rosetta's presentations correctly, but it seems that the pay zones are much thicker in the Tribal Gunsight well than they are in the Riverbed wells which are near the border.
Yes it was Poise. I post under natureboy16 at SH. You are right about GSY est IP of 150 better be low. That would be marginal. They would be better off on that shallow oil channel - forgot the name of the fmn. I suspect that it will be better, but hey, must have patience.
I bought more GSY day before the PP - made me feel like an idiot. Ha Ha, the mkt has so many ways to humble an investor.
Waiting for an email response from GSY.
I didn't get a nick here as I am reluctant to give them my phone number.
Have a good wknd.
IMO of the juniors involved(excluding Rosetta) GSY is the least risky way of playing this resource as it has a fair amount of existing projects, reserves and production as a backstopper. DTX's 2010 drilling program wasn't exactly a great success and besides the Bakken-Exshaw it doesn't have too many low/medium risk drillable targets.
I find it's interesting that Rosetta as the first mover had the opportunity to acquire PIE when it a had market cap of less than $10 million, but it didn't do so. Was this a big mistake on Rosetta's part or is PIE a big bubble?
Have a great Sunday!
I talked to Mike at PIE back in March last year. I don't care for his style - very promotional, and in my opinion, somewhat misleading. A well that he said was a mile away was in fact 15 miles away when I checked (Saturn). Also, I have a detailed map of the Teton lands - the current online map is very vague and misleading, leading investors to believe that Teton land is very close to ROSE - it is not. I have long wondered why no one else took them out or at least JV'd with them. Still to this day - no JV at Teton. I am sure that Legacy would have kicked the tires.
I also did not like some of Mike's insider trading pattern. Also, they went thru 2 or 3 CFO's in less than a year or so - red flag for me.
I never bought any of those shares - however, in hindsight I should have bought a boat load at 5 and 6 cents - I could have had all I wanted.
I came across PIE for first time in last February. The balance sheet was in a crappy condition and the acreage appeared to be too far away from where all the activity was.
I suppose you know that part of Rosetta's Montana acreage was acquired from Wave Energy, which was bought CPG in 2009(October or November).
Another killer for PIE is Mike's inability to drill a (producing) well. He did very poorly on those Montana wells (Maddison?). Then he had a much lower risk well in SE Alberta. Missed again. I give him the benefit of the doubt in that he has not endeavored to even strat test his Teton land yet. (I would test it - much easier to get good terms. In fact BWD was dumb not to test and core.)
Having said all this, it is still indeed possible that PIE may have some bakken potential - seems there are some core and shows in the area. The guy that put me onto this play seems to think the bakken goes far south of the Blackfoot Res. He is an industry prospect generator, so I put a little bit of weight on his geological interpretation of the area play.
I did not realize that ROSE got that land from Wave. Do you mean the acreage at the most southerly extent of ROSE's land?
I don't know exactly where the acreage is located, but that is probably where it's at. I think CPG has held on to at least some of the old Wave acreage(I haven't checked with the company but on the Montana Board of oil gas site CPG is mentioned as the operator of the old Wave wells).
Thought more of GSY. Worthy to note that they did not do a big pump or tout pre the recent offering. They could easily have pumped results from the vertical strat test and announced the first HZTL test, that spud just a few days ago.
They were not wildly in need of the money. I suspect they may be trying to buy more land. Time will tell. Sure wish I had waited (just one day) with my last purchase.
New DTX presentation out today - absolutely nothing new. First Hztl in progress; I knew that already.
Murphy and Legacy have mentioned the Second White Speckled Shale as one of the potential targets in the area. If the SWSS is a legitimate target then Forent Energy is a company that might worth a look. They acquired about 15,000 acres of land near the only well that has produced significant quantities of oil from the SWSS (1.4 mmbbl of oil & 2.5 Bcf of natural gas). The acquired acreage appears to be outside the Exshaw-Banff-Big Valley fairway. Legacy's Yanko mentioned the SWSS well in the recent CIBC presentation, but I got the impression that he thinks that yhe well is a just an anomaly. Brett Wilson is involved with Forent(chairman & a major shareholder). Any thoughts?
Your mention of Forent is the first for me. A quick look at their pres. I like the Montgomery land. I am not convinced that they don't have Exshaw potential. The SWSS seems like a good potential. (Good for GSY as well.) I don't know how or if the Vulcan Low affects these zones. I know nothing about the VL. Have you heard anything on that?
I worry about their work commitments in NS - how to finance such - seems it has to attract a biggy in JV? Not sure.
I already have too much exposure to shale gas asset plays, so that part I find ugly. Financing these plays is a major burden (ala dilution).
The Montgomery land is indeed interesting - drill one year out. Worth watching - radar list.
The big SWSS well I presume to have struck a fracture network. Same goes for the Big Valley well that cum'd 243kbo - likely a fracture network. They need core to test what is there.
I would be interested in your views on the DTX NR Friday night.
The comments regarding the first "Bakken" well are very vague, which is something that I find strange. DTX already has an extensive land position in the area and considering how weak its financial position is it can not even hope to add incremental acreage. So why hold back details(porosity, permeability, net potential pay)? Especially if they like what they see?
One reason might be that they don't think that geology near the first well is representative of significant portion of their acreage but the market might think so.
There is one clear conclusion that I would draw from the release: Besides Bakken-Exshaw DTX has absolutely nothing going for it. The two million boes of natural gas reserves are worth about $20-30 million and they'll provide very little support to DTX's share price if for one reason or another(thermal immaturity, lack of pressure-flow rates, thin pay etc.) the B-E potential on DTX's acreage turns out to much smaller than the market is hoping for.
Wild Stream Exploration's Febtuary presentation mentions a "New Play" which could be the Alberta Basin Bakken. If WSX thinks that their acreage near Red Coulee is prospective then a large chunk DTX's land will be. The predicted economics don't look all that appealing(DCET $5MM and NPV $5MM).
Care to share your thoughts on the DTX release?
Well, I was viewing the release a little more positive. I took the lack of data to point to land deal possibilities. It appears that DTX may have picked up some small amounts from Conoco (comparing DTX Jan pres. to the map from Macquarie Oct 2010. But I agree more data would have been nice. This play is very frustrating with lack of data thus far. They did increase the number of prospective locations to 250 from 100 a short while back. The statement of maybe contracting a second rig would hint to me of a bullish attitude to prospects - but would also require another capital raise this year.
I did find the release coming on a Friday night strange - I guess Marty is very embarrassed on the (gas) reserves - he should be. It could also be construed as trying to fly under the radar with BE news.
All in I took it positive, but I heed your comments. Wild Stream - I would be surprised if the BE wells have a $5m DCET unless they are going to go Hztl into more than one zone in each well bore. Otherwise should be no more than $3.5m at this time. Time will tell.
A bit of info that doesn't seem to have spread too far yet(you might know this already): two parcels located in T9-R24 were sold on the Wednesday Crown sale for $950 and $1,010 per acre. GSY has five sections of land in T9R24 but I think it's unlikely that GSY bought either of these two since the buyers were land leasing companies and GSY has done it's purchases openly. In case you didn't know it could you keep under your hat for a couple of days?
OT: Have you followed the Slave Point play in Red Earth-Evi-Loon Lake area?
I did not know about that land. You are right that GSY has not used land agents in the past. I really hope GSY doesn't hold well results conf. for a year.
I will hold that land data - no worries.
I have not followed the Slave Pt play - finding it hard to follow so much going on - I think the patch is busiest I have seen in 11 yrs.
Interesting to note that Poise's info posts have largely been deleted. No idea why or by whom (may well be him, as he has not commented or openly complained).
Thanks for the thoughts.
Another note, you may have heard of Reliable Energy REL.TO.
New presentation this weekend. Looks very good - sweet spot for capital apprec. IMHO. I have a big bunch acb=35 cents. I think it is worth 60 cents now and 80 cents later this year, and a dollar on a TO (not expected - too soon), current 46 cents.
They just upped the hztl locations quite a bit. New Montana WB land is analogy to Manitoba bakken play. Very good liquidity. I will be buying a few tomorrow if it does not run away.
An interesting development new to me:
ROSE presentation Feb 09,2011:
See page 20:
http://www.rosettaresources.com/downloads/020911%20Rosetta%20Resources%20Inc%20-%20RLimbacher%20CS%20Energy%20Summit.pdf?eventid=92198
Specifically:
Drilled a north east extension and encountered thickening
Banff and Bakken intervals (Big Rock 29‐13)
That might suggest better fruit for Wildstream and DTX.
REL has been on one of my watchlists since the CPG transaction. It's an interesting company but I have some doubts concerning the management.
"Thanks for the thoughts."
Likewise.
One of the isopach maps did suggest that the Exshaw would be relatively thick near WSX's plot. However thickness doesn't tell anything about the reservoir quality. The wording on that page would seem to suggest that the reservoir parameters in the northeast are similar to the ones encountered on rest of the acreage.
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