We continue to see substantial risks to our crude oil forecasts for 2012 and 2013. In 2012, we believe that the risk is skewed to the upside. Although the European debt crisis remains a significant downside risk to oil prices in 2012, we believe that like in 2H07, extremely tight physical markets may have set the stage for oil prices to move sharply higher first (see Exhibits 1 and 2). This would be similar to what took place in 1H08, when crude oil prices hit record highs over $145/bbl, with the potential damage to world oil demand from the feared global economic recession realized only afterward. If either of these two extreme outcomes – a crude oil price spike driven by the extremely tight physical markets like the one experienced in 1H08 or a global economic recession triggered by the European debt crisis – were realized in 2012, they would likely lead to sharply lower oil demand in 2013. Consequently, we believe that the risk to our 2013 crude oil price forecasts is skewed to the
downside.
Brent näyttäisi olevan vuoden 2011 tuottoisin raaka-aine. Noh onhan tässä vielä päiviä vuodesta jäljellä.
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