CPG.UN Q4

Revenues C$605.7 million

Net income C$361.4 million

Funds flow per unit C$0.87 (-12%)

Net income per unit C$2.84 (+455%)

Payout ratio 79%

Production 39,554 boepd(88% liquids, 12% natural gas) (+19%)

Average realized prices
liquids(bbl) C$60.02 (-20%)
natural gas(mcf) C$7.23 (+14%)
per boe C$58.06 (-17%)

Netback
without derivatives C$37.70 (-18%)
with realized derivatives C$40.42 (-5%)

Reserves 191.0 million boe, RLI(P+P) 13.7 years

F&D costs per boe(P+P) $20.91

Balance sheet

Assets
Current C$178.7 million
Total C$3,307.6 million

Liabilities
Current C$138.6 million
Total C$1,462.9 million

Equity C$1,844.8 million

Outlook (summary)

"Crescent Point continues to execute its proven business plan of creating value added growth in reserves, production and cash flow through management’s integrated strategy of acquiring, exploiting and developing high quality, long life, light and medium oil and natural gas properties. Crescent Point’s strong balance sheet, 3½ year risk management program and high quality asset base position the Trust well to maintain production and distributions through volatile commodity price cycles.Pro forma with the assets acquired from Talisman, Crescent Point will have increased its low risk development drilling inventory to more than 1,600 net locations, representing more than 16 years of low risk drilling inventory to maintain production levels. Through infill drilling, production optimization and water flood implementation, management believes the Trust has the potential to more than double its proved plus probable reserves over time."

"Crescent Point’s development capital budget for 2009 was set in December 2008 at $225 million, with average production forecast at 38,250 boe/d. Assuming the successful completion of the acquisition of the Talisman assets, Crescent Point has
upwardly revised its average 2009 production guidance to 40,500 boe/d, while maintaining its $225 million capital program for the year. Exit production is forecast greater than 42,000 boe/d."

"Crescent Point’s management believes that with the high quality reserve base and development inventory, excellent balance sheet and solid hedging program, the Trust is well positioned to continue generating strong operating and financial results and
delivering sustainable distributions through 2009 and beyond."

The report in pdf format

P/B 1.84

Comments: An OK quarter in spite of the tumbling commodity prices. Production costs should be coming down somewhat in the next quarters with lower rig rates and drill pipe prices. I expect that the distribution will be cut by 10-25% after the Talisman acquisition has been completed. Overall the future for Crescent Point looks very good: high quality, long life, moderate cost reserves and potential to grow the production. Virtually no political risks. Very good management.
The stock isn't cheap, but isn't expensive either.