"The Business Plan 2009-2013 has established the following oil production targets in Brazil: 2,680 thousand barrels of oil per day (bpd) in 2013, 3,340 thousand bpd in 2015
and 3,920 thousand bpd in 2020. In addition to the Tupi Pilot System, to begin production in 2010, three systems are scheduled to go into production in the pre-salt layer of the Santos Basin during the period 2009-2013: Tupi 1 and Guará 1 in 2012 and Iara 1 in 2013. The 2015 target in the 2008-12 Business Plan of 2,812 thousand bpd has been increased by 528 thousand bpd as a result of these additional production projects.
Including natural gas production, domestic output will reach 3,310 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed) in 2013, 4,140 thousand boed in 2015 (685 thousand
boed more than for the 2008-12 Business Plan) and 5,100 thousand boed in 2020."
"The plan, which for the first time includes investments in the pre-salt area in Santos Basin, envisages total investments of US$ 174.4 billion in 2013, . This represents an annual average of US$ 34.9 billion, 90% of which (US$ 157.3 billion) in Brazil and 10% (US$ 16.8 billion) abroad and 55% more than the previous Plan."
"Despite the current financial crises potential impacts in the short term oil demand, in the long term, the supply of oil is still expected to be lower than the demand due to depletion in the existing production fields. Petrobras uses the average Brent price assumption of US$ 42 per barrel for its analysis of financiability, leverage targets and rates of return. The Plan also contemplates the analysis of the world production growth, exchange rate and oil and oil products price assumptions."
Da Plan(pdf)
Very ambitious numbers, the oil price assumption is rather prudent.
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