"Oil Companies May Wait for Hedges to End to Go Bargain Shopping "

Bloomberg:

"May 12 (Bloomberg) -- Quantum Energy Partners, the Houston private-equity firm that put together a $3.5 billion bankroll to go bargain-hunting for acquisitions after oil and natural-gas prices plunged, is waiting for a better time to pounce.

Buyers will accelerate acquisitions late this year and in early 2010 as the hedging contracts that shielded potential takeover targets from tumbling prices expire, said Wil VanLoh, Quantum’s chief executive officer..."

Tristar O & G Q1

Kanadalainen öljyn ja kaasuntuottaja TOG:n ensimmäisen kvartaalin luvut:


Liikevaihto C$68.74 miljoonaa (-37%)

Operatiivinen kassavirta C$56.95 miljoonaa (-23%)

Netto tulos C$13.82 miljoonaa

Osakekohtainen tulos C$ -0.12

Tuotanto
Nesteet(öljy, NGL) 16,784 tynnyriä/päivä (+23%)
Maakaasu 24,596 Mcf/päivä (-30%)
Netback per öljytynnyri ekvivalentti C$33.06 (-28%)

Tase

Varat
Lyhytaikaiset C$144.93 miljoonaa
Kaikki C$2,107.07 miljoonaa (sis. goodwill 250 milj.)

Velat
Lyhytaikaiset C$135.55 miljoonaa
Kaikki C$789.56 miljoonaa

Omapääoma C$1,317.50 miljoonaa

P/E 13.9, P/B 1.08

Tiedote

Yhtiön mukaan sen Bakkenissa testaamilla normaalia lyhyemmillä horisontaalikaivoilla, joissa frakturointiväli on tiheä ensisijainen talteenotto prosentti nousee parilla prosenttiyksiköllä. Jos tekniikkaa voidaan soveltaa Bakkenissa laajemmin yhtiön reservit kasvavat jopa 65 miljoonalla tynnyrillä. Yhtiön tämän hetken todennetut ja todennäköiset (2P) reservit ovat 108.5 miljoonaa tynnyriä, eli jos lyhyemmän kaivon ja tiheiden frakkien tekniikka toimii nousevat yhtiön reservit 60%.
Tristarin fuusio Crescent Pointin kanssa on lähinnä vain ajankysymys. Sekä TOG:n ja Crescent Pointin hallituksissa istuva Paul Colbornella on takana massiivinen määrä fuusiota ja hän on kasvattanut mm. Starpoint Energyn ja Startech Energyn muutaman sadan tynnyrin päivätuotannon yhtiöstä kymmenien tuhansien päivätuotantoon. Starpoint on nykyään osa Penn Westiä ja Startech Arc Energy Trustia. Colborne oli Crescentin tj ennen konvertiota yhtiöstä trustiksi. Yhtiöiden nimissä näyttäisi olevan selvä kaava: Startech-Starpoint-Crescent Point-Tristar.

Colbornen oli mukana Energy Tv:n parin kuukauden takaisessa paneelikeskustelussa.

Rig Count

According to Baker Hughes

US: oil: -6, gas: -11

Canada: -4


The numbers are still declining, yet the prices have rebounded quite a bit.

Bagdad sallii öljyn viennin DNO:n kentältä

WSJ

" The Iraqi federal oil ministry said Sunday it will allow the autonomous Kurdish government in northern Iraq to start exporting crude oil in June to world markets after blocking such shipments for the past two years. The Kurds and the central government, which grants all oil-export licenses, have been at odds since 2007 over Iraq's draft hydrocarbons law and oil contracts that the Kurds signed with foreign companies. Despite those issues being still unresolved, Baghdad -- under increased financial strain because of weak oil prices and falling revenue -- will allow the Kurds to begin exporting 60,000 barrels a day from June 1, oil ministry spokesman Assem Jihad said. "We are agreeing to the exports," he said. The Kurds said Friday they would start exports regardless of the ministry's approval. Mr. Jihad didn't say why Baghdad had reversed itself, but it is likely that the central government's need for more revenue played a part in its decision. The government has slashed its 2009 budget three times because of falling oil prices."

Rahan tarve on mitä ilmeisimmin se tärkein syy viennin sallimiselle ja juuri sen vuoksi olen skeptinen sen suhteen kuinka paljon jos yhtään öljyn vientituloista päätyy ulkomaisille kenttien operaattoreille tai edes kurdeille. Irakin oloja suuremmin tuntematta näen että jollei Kurdistan itsenäisty päätyy kaikki Irakin öljyntuotanto valtion kontrolliin kuten muissakin alueen merkittävissä öljyntuottaja maissa. Kallimpiin ja marginaali projekteihin voidaan ottaa mukaan ulkomaisia kuten on tehty offshore kaasussa mm. Qatarissa, mutta kannattavimmat ja matalan geologisen riskin projektit päätyvät valtion syliin. Kuitenkin lähiviikkoina Irakissa mukana olevien yhtiöiden kursseissa pitäisi olla odotettavissa vieläkin kovaa nostetta ja volaa, jota kannattaa hyödyntää.

DNO:n arvo tai arvottomuus on lähes kokonaan Irak-kortin varassa, mutta Heritagella ja Addaxilla on muita suuren potentiaalin ja pienemmän riskin poliittisen riskin projekteja, joten ne eivät täysin romahda vaikka Irakin bileet lässähtäisivät.

Itselläni on siis positio DNO:ssa, mutta myös Addaxin ja Heritagen osto on harkinnassa.

Virmat:
Addax Petroleum (LSE: AXC, TSX: AXC)

DNO International (OSE: DNO)

Heritage Oil (LSE: HOIL, TSX: HOC)

PÄIVITYS

UPSTREAM: Kurdish deals 'illegal and illegitimate'

"The Iraqi Oil Ministry still considers contracts signed by the largely autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) foreign oil companies illegal, despite news this week the ministry would allow exports from Kurdish fields, an official said today."

Ship Owners Forced to Pay to Carry Middle East Oil

Hellenic Shipping News

"Ship owners are being forced to pay to carry oil from the Middle East to the U.S. for the first time in at least a decade after demand collapsed and the fleet expanded. Supertanker owners make no rental income from the voyages and are paying $3,445 a day toward fuel costs, data from the Baltic Exchange in London show. Rental rates normally cover fuel costs . The journey to the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port from Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia’s largest export facility, earned owners as much as $104,663 a day in July..."

CM Market Bulletin

VLCC
A quiet week with little fresh enquiry from MEG and rates now slipped ex-West Africa, owners struggling to find any positive signs in the market and charterers just sitting back in no rush to fix.

Suezmax
A modest amount of activity but with a tonnage list a mile long rates were unable to make any significant gain.

Panamax
1. CARIBS - A good amount of activity this week but any sustainable gain in rates seems unlikely. Expect rates to remain soft next week.

2. FAR EAST- There are plenty modern vessels available off Singapore, and very little requirement to even keep the voyage calculator ticking over. There were various fuel oil tenders closing during the week, but still a large proportion of the players in these control tonnage that they will look to protect first, before showing to the spot market. Current market assessment for Indo/North is at ws70 level

Tanker stock moves during the last 5 days:

Frontline: +7.75%
General Maritime: -0.82%
Knightsbridge Tankers: +25%
Nordic American Tanker: +8%
Tsakos Energy Navigation +18.66%

Canadian Natural Resources Q1

Revenues C$2,186 million (-45%)
Cash flow from operations C$1,516 million (-12%)
Net earnings C$305 million (-58)
EPS C$0.56 (-59%)

Production
Liquids 330,017 bbl/d (-1%)
Natural gas 1,369 mmcf/d (-11%)
Netback C$21.96(-52%)


Balance sheet

Assets
Current C$3,060 million
Total C$43,344 million

Liabilities
Current C$43,028 million
Total C$24,628 million

Equity C$18,716 million

P/E 7.5, P/B 1.8

Report(.pdf)

CNR doesn't look very attractive on the surfice, but it does have 11 million net acres of undeveloped land in North America and the ~2 billion barrels of bitumen provide longevity.

Vienti alkamassa DNO:n Irakin kentiltä?

Pörssipaussi, tiedote ja parikymmentä prosenttia plussaa.

DNO International:

"Reference is made to a notification on the website of the Kurdistan Regional Government ("KRG") today, announcing commencement of crude oil exports from the Tawke field and the Taq-Taq field from June, 2009.
DNO International ASA has not received any notification from KRG concerning commencement of crude oil exports..."

Vaikka vienti käynnistyisi ei ole takeita että DNO hyötyisi siitä milläänlailla, kun Bagdad pitää Kurdistanin solmimia sopimuksia laittomina ja Kurdistan on ainakin toistaiseksi Bagdadin alaisuudessa. Omistan pienen erän yhtiötä.

Petrominerales Q1

The Canada based Colombian producer-explorer Petrominerales(TSX:PMG) reports Q1:

Revenues $69.34 million (+11%)
Cash flow $41.8 million (-7%)
Net income $7.38 million (-67%)
EPS $0.07 (-67%)

Production
Oil 21,771 bbls/d (+152%)
Operating netback $24.20 (-64%)

Balance sheet

Assets
Current $101.09 million
Total $582.66 million

Liabilities
Current $84.82 million
Total $177,14 million

Equity $405.52 million(C$474.54 million)

P/E, P/B 2.5

Quotes:
*an undrawn $80 million credit facility
*Continued drilling success has resulted in production averaging 25,252 bopd to date in May.
*We have received expressions of
interest for our Orito property and we are considering a sale of this non-core asset through a formal marketing process.


Release(pdf) and presentation


Thoughts: PMG's production is growing rapidly in Colombia and the exploration projects in Peru are advancing. An important aspect of the Colombian production is that it is oil, not natural gas. The company has ample liquidity to grow the production in the near future, which today is not the case for most juniors or midsized e&ps.
Considering the capital intensive projects(Whitesands) that the parent company Petrobank pursues in the tight financial situation it is, the possibility of the sale of PMG is IMO very real. If the sale were to take place, the premium would be probably be very substantial.