Kaasuinen Lunttu

LUNDIN PETROLEUM MAKES GAS DISCOVERY, OFFSHORE PENINSULAR MALAYSIA

Lundin Petroleum AB (Lundin Petroleum) is pleased to announce that it has completed Tembakau-1 well in PM307 Block, offshore Peninsula Malaysia, as a gas discovery. Tembakau-1 was a vertical well drilled to a depth of 1,565 metres in 67 metres water depth. The well discovered a series of stacked gas pay sands in the target Miocene objective. Overall the well penetrated approximately 60 m of net gas pay in five high quality sand intervals. Tembakau-1 is located 30 km to the west of the nearest oil and gas infrastructure. An extensive data acquisition program was completed, including rock and fluid samples, pressure profiles and mini-DST's. Following logging the well was plugged and abandoned. Further work will follow to estimate recoverable resource ranges. Ashley Heppenstall, President and CEO of Lundin Petroleum comments: "Tembakau is very encouraging given its location in an unexplored area of PM307. We are hopeful this discovery has the potential to be commercial on a stand-alone basis given its close proximity to existing gas infrastructure and the strong demand for gas in Peninsular Malaysia. The discovery paves the way to evaluate further follow-up potential in an area where Lundin Petroleum acquired a large 3D survey in 2011. The discovery is the second successful well completed in PM307 in 2012 and continues our robust exploration performance in Malaysia that commenced in 2011 with six discoveries made from nine wells drilled."

Pre-drill arvio prospektin koosta oli 60 miljoonaa BOEta. Pre-drill arvioitu CoS 30%. Tuskin menee itsenäisenä projektina tuotantoon. 10km etäisyydellä Tembakausta on kuitenkin puolisen tusinaa poraamatonta prospektia ja joista löytyisi vähintään yksi 30 miljoonan BOE:n kenttä niin nämä varmasti menisivät tuotantoon.

LUNDIN PETROLEUM FINDS GAS IN BARENTS SEA

Tiedotteesta:

Lundin Petroleum AB (Lundin Petroleum), through its wholly owned subsidiary Lundin Norway AS (Lundin Norway), is pleased to announce that exploration well 7220/10-1 in PL533 has discovered gas condensate in the Salina structure located on the west flank of the Loppa High in the Barents Sea.Well 7220/10-1 has proved two gas columns in sandstone of Cretaceous and Jurassic age. Data acquisition in the well, including coring, wireline logging and fluid sampling, has proven good reservoir quality in the sandstone. Preliminary calculations, made by the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate, give a range of gross discovered volume in the Salina structure of between 5 and 7 billion standard cubic metres (Bsm3) (29 to 41 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMboe)) of recoverable gas/condensate.The well was drilled to a total depth of 2,371 metres below mean sea level and was drilled with the rig Scarabeo 8.Lundin Petroleum holds 20 percent interest in PL533. Partners are ENI (operator) with 40 percent interest, RWE Dea (20 percent) and Det norske oljeselskap ASA (20 percent)... 

 Pre-drill arvio Salinasin potentiaalista oli 500 miljoonaa boeta. Löytö ei näytä kaupalliselle; jos tämän sijainti olisi 500 kilometriä etelämmässä ja kaasun sijasta rakentessa olisi öljyä niin tämä olisi varmasti kaupallinen osuma. Jos jos.

Lisäys 10.10.2012
DetNor sanoo että ei ole kaupallinen:

 The operator’s estimate of recoverable gas volumes is between six and eight billion cubic meters (40-50 million barrels of oil equivalents). With the existing infrastructure for gas processing and transport in the Barents Sea, the gas discovery is not considered commercial by Det norske

Norjan ölkät sittenkin lopussa?!

LUNDIN PETROLEUM COMPLETES AVALDSNES APPRAISAL WELL 16/5-2S, OFFSHORE NORWAY

Well 16/5-2S encountered a 15 metres Jurassic sequence of which the upper 8 metres has excellent reservoir quality. Top reservoir was found deeper than expected, and below the oil water contact. Good hydrocarbon shows were observed below the oil water contact but were currently evaluated as not producible hydrocarbons.

ja

The impact of this well on the southern extent of the Avaldsnes discovery is currently being evaluated and will most likely reduce current resource estimates for this area. Further geophysical studies and possible appraisal drilling will be required to determine whether the deeper than prognoses, top reservoir depth at this location, is not a local effect.

Lunttu on palannut vanhoihin kaavoihin ja resurssiarvio kutistui parilla sadalla miljoonalla.

LUPE haukkasi taas tyhjää Kongossa

LUNDIN PETROLEUM COMPLETES MAKOUALA MARINE-1 WELL, OFFSHORE CONGO (BRAZZAVILLE)

The Makouala Marine-1 well, in Block Marine XIV offshore Congo (Brazzaville), has encountered limited oil bearing pay in the target Sendji formation reservoirs. This well was the second of a two to three well campaign in the area. The well will now be plugged and abandoned and the drilling rig will be released.

Kaivon arvioitu osumaprosentti oli 32%, eli ei mikään "long shot". Yhtiö suunnitelmissa on porata vielä yksi exploration-kaivo Kongoon ensi vuonna, tuossa CoS 23%.

Vähän lisää

  Doubling of Aldous volumes

Statoil ASA (OSE: STL, NYSE: STO), together with partners Petoro AS, Det norske oljeselskap ASA and Lundin Norway AS, has confirmed significant additional volumes in its appraisal well in the Aldous Major South discovery (PL265) in the North Sea.

 

DN:ssä on video öljyä tihkuvasta Aldous kaivon ytimestä.

Avaldsnesin koosta uusi arvio

AVALDSNES RECOVERABLE RESOURCES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 800 MILLION AND 1.8 BILLION BARRELS OF OIL

The Avaldsnes discovery is estimated to contain gross Contingent Resources of between 800 million and 1.8 billion barrels of recoverable oil within licence PL501 following the results of this year's two appraisal well and sidetrack program. The results from the Aldous Major South discovery well drilled by Statoil in the adjoining licence PL265 were also used when updating the resource range within licence PL501. The Contingent Resource range has been independently audited by Gaffney, Cline & Associates.

Avaldsnes was discovered in September 2010 with the 16/2-6 well. The Avaldsnes and the Aldous Major South discovery wells and subsequent Avaldsnes appraisal wells demonstrate that Avaldsnes and Aldous Major South are connected with the same oil water contact, pressure regime, oil type and reservoir.

Statoil as operator for PL265 has announced an estimated recoverable resource range from 400 to 800 million barrels (gross) for Aldous Major South. The combined Avaldsnes/Aldous Major South discoveries therefore have a gross Contingent Resource range estimate of 1.2 to 2.6 billion barrels of recoverable oil...

Nauhoite tämän päivän lehdistötilaisuudesta.

"France May Revoke Shale Oil Permits in October, Minister Says"

Bloomberg:

France may quash permits to explore for oil and natural gas in shale under the country’s hydraulic fracturing ban as soon as next month, according to Environment Minister Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet.

Oil and gas companies that were planning to explore for shale hydrocarbons under previously granted licenses have until Sept. 13 to inform the government whether they plan to use the technique known as fracking, the minister said in an interview at a conference outside Paris.

“After that we have one month to decide the fate of the permits,” she said. “If a company says it’s planning to use hydraulic fracturing, their permit will be canceled. It’s the law.”

Perusteet, joilla lupia meinataan viedä vaikuttavat aika epämääräisiltä. Tuskin tämä on pysyvää. Pohjois-Amerikassa on frakattu tuhansia kaivoja ja vahinkojen määrä on olematon. Pelkoa ja hysteriaa on Amerikassakin, mutta noiden tunnetilojen saavuttaminen ei edellytä todellista uhkaa.

Lundin arvioi

APPRAISAL WELL CONFIRMS EXTENSION OF AVALDSNES FIELD
Lundin Petroleum AB (Lundin Petroleum) is pleased to announce that the second appraisal well, 16/2-7, has confirmed the extension of the Avaldsnes field approximately 5.5 kilometres south of the 16/2-6 discovery well and 4.5 kilometres south-west of the first appraisal well 16/3-4. The Avaldsnes field is located in licence PL501 on the Norwegian Continental Shelf and is in communication with the recently announced Aldous Major South discovery in PL265 to the west.

The second Avaldsnes appraisal well encountered a gross reservoir column of excellent quality Upper Jurassic age sandstone of approximately 35 metres of which seven metres was above the oil water contact. A comprehensive coring and logging program has been performed which has confirmed excellent quality reservoir characteristics.

The appraisal well will now be sidetracked to obtain further reservoir information. The sidetrack will be completed by mid September. The well was drilled to a total depth of 2,500 metres MD and in a water depth of 113 metres.

Lundin Petroleum is using the semi submersible drilling rig Bredford Dolphin to drill the well.

Ashley Heppenstall, President and CEO of Lundin Petroleum comments; "The second Avaldsnes appraisal well results have confirmed the extension of the field to the south. We will, following the sidetrack, incorporate the results of the two well appraisal programme and Statoil's Aldous Major South well in PL265 into our geotechnical models. We will then release a revised resource range from the previously announced 100 - 400 million barrels of recoverable of oil equivalent contained within PL501. The Avaldsnes /Aldous Major South discovery is already the largest discovery on the Norwegian Continental Shelf since the mid 1980s and I am confident has the potential to grow as the field is appraised. It is likely that a third appraisal well will be drilled on Avaldsnes during the fourth quarter of 2011."

Lundin Norway AS is the operator of PL501 with a 40 percent interest. Partners are Statoil Petroleum AS with 40 percent interest and Maersk Oil Norway with 20 percent interest.blockquote>

Jos oikein ymmärrän niin öljyllä täytettyä kiveä on vain 7 metriä. Water drive lienee varsin hyvä ja siten ölkkää virtaa ylös hyvin.

Aldous-Avaldsnes-kompleksi NCS :n 10 suurimman joukossa?

Kan være blant ti største oljefunn på norsk sokkel

I tillegg har Statoil fått bekreftet at det er sammenheng mellom funnene på Aldous Major South og Avaldsnes, henholdsvis i lisens PL 265 og lisens PL501. Oljestrukturen estimeres å inneholde totalt 500-1.200 millioner fat utvinnbare oljeekvivalenter.

Puolesta miljardista 1.2 miljardiin tynnyriin on siis arvio tällä hetkellä. Reiluun miljardiinhan itsekin päädyin viime viikolla kompleksisten laskutoimitusten jälkeen. Tuollainen löytö kannustaa kyllä reijittämään.

DetNor on tänään reilussa 25% nousussa ja Lundinkin 6 prosenttia plussalla. Puolimutuna arvioisin että Lundinilla on varaa noustaa tuonne 120 kruunuun. Näissä oloissa tuskin nousee, mutta ehkä seuraavan 12 kk aikana, jos tilanne rauhoittuu.

Kartta alueesta.

Osumia Norjassa

ROCKSOURCE PROVIDES UPDATE ON THE NORVARG GAS DISCOVERY IN THE BARENTS SEA

Reference is made to stock exchange announcement dated 16 June 2011 related to the Norvarg discovery in PL 535 in the Barents Sea, operated by Total. Remaining operations, including the announced production test have now been completed. The results from the production test are encouraging, and will be included in the ongoing evaluation of the Norvarg area to establish the size and extent of the discovery. Preliminary estimates provided by the Operator indicate the size of the discovery at between 10- 50 recoverable GSm3 (billion cubic meters), corresponding to ca. 63-315 million barrels recoverable oil equivalent.

The Norvarg well proved gas in both the Jurassic and Triassic intervals and an extensive static and dynamic data acquisition program was performed. Moveable hydrocarbons were proven in the Stø, Snadd, and Kobbe formations. For the Kobbe, hydrocarbons were encountered over a 400 meter interval, in reservoir rocks with variable quality. Further, in the deeper Havert Formation, hydrocarbons were encountered over two main intervals (80 and 90 meters) in reservoir rocks of poor quality.

The production test was conducted in the upper part of the Kobbe Formation in order to investigate reservoir productivity. A production rate of 180,000 standard cubic meters (Sm3) per day of good quality gaswas obtained during the main flow period.The gas contains very low carbon dioxide (CO2), hydrogen sulphide (H2S) and nitrogen (N2).

Testiluku taitaa olla boe:na noin 1,000, mikä ei ole päätä huimaava luku. Jos kentän koko jää alle sataan boehen niin tällä ei juurikaan ole arvoa, kun on noin pohjoisessa. Jos koko ylittää 200 miljoonaa boeta niin Rockin osuudella ehkä 80-100 miljoonaa arvoa(2-3 dollaria per boe) tässä vaiheessa.

RockSourcen oma arvio(joka perustui heidän elektromagneettisen datan tulkintaan) osumatodennäköisyydestä Norvargissa oli >50%.

High-impact discovery in the North Sea

Statoil ASA (OSE: STL, NYSE: STO) and partners Petoro AS, Det norske oljeselskap ASA and Lundin Norway AS have made a high-impact oil discovery on the Aldous Major South prospect (PL 265) in the North Sea.

Well 16/2-8, drilled by the Transocean Leader drilling rig, has identified an approximately 65-metre oil column in Jurassic sandstone. The acquired data confirm that this is a reservoir of excellent quality.

Statoil has previously described the well as a high-impact well (*), and the result confirms Statoil’s belief in the exploration potential on the Norwegian continental shelf in line with what was communicated at the Capital Markets Day event in New York in June.

Preliminary volumes are estimated to be between 200 and 400 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe) for this part of the structure in PL 265, and Statoil expects additional upside in the licence both north and south of the discovery.

Aldous Major South is located west of Lundin’s Avaldsnes discovery (licence PL 501), where Statoil has a 40% stake, and some 35 kilometres south of the Statoil-operated Grane field.

Tuo Aldous-Avaldnes-kompleksi saattaa olla kooltaan yli miljardi tynnyriä talteen otettavaa öljyä, eli melkoisen iso. Olisiko suurin Pohjanmerellä reiluun 10 vuoteen? Talismanin Golden Eagle taitaa olla virallisesti suurin viimeisen vuosikymmenen aikana löydetty. Vai oliko se Nexenin Buzzard?

NCS on kypsä ölkkäprovinssi, mutta selvästikkään ei vielä tyhjiin kaluttu.

Lundin päätti päivän 6 prosenttia miinukselle, vaikka kasvatti juuri 3P-reservejään 20-40 miljoonalla tynnyrillä. Brent on toki laskussa, mutta alle kolme prosenttia.

Elämme kiehtovia aikoja kiehtovassa maailmassa.



9.8.2011 Muoks.

"Når du produserer for fem dollar og selger for 100, så blir det ganske bra"

Otsikossa ohjeet miljoonien tekoon.

Mukava teksti videon kerävä Lundin Petroleumista ja Lundineista:
Norsk oljefest for svensk familie

Yhtiön luvut Norjan laatalta ovat varsin vaikuttavia, toivottavasti osumatarkkuus säilyy yhtä hyvänä:


Lisäsin taas viime viikolla LUPEa. Libyan tilanne näyttää pitkittyvän ja tuotanto(ja vienti) pysynee olemattomana, mikä taas tukee brenttua.

Lupellla putki päällä

12 July 2011

LUNDIN PETROLEUM DISCOVERS GAS IN ITS FIRST MALAYSIAN EXPLORATION WELL

Lundin Petroleum AB (Lundin Petroleum) is pleased to announce that it has discovered gas in the Tarap-1 well that was drilled in Block SB303, offshore Sabah, East Malaysia.

Tarap-1 was drilled with the Offshore Courageous rig in a water depth of approximately 70 meters. The well was directionally drilled to a measured depth of 2,675 metres.

The Tarap discovery is a stratigrahic trap and the well encountered gas in each of the 5 independently sealed stacked Miocene sands targeted. Gross total vertical pay thickness for the sands encountered is approximately 150 metres. An extensive data acquisition program was completed including pressure measurements, sampling and a mini flow test in selected zones.

The data recovered from the well will be analysed further in order to determine a range of resource estimates...

Bruttoahan tuossa on mukavasti, mutta paljonko kaasulla täytettyä kiveä on nettona jää nähtäväksi. Yhtiön presentaatio sanoo(s.36) että pre-drill arvio oli 51 miljoonaa boeta bruttona(37 nettona Lupelle). Minulla ei ole aavistustakaan paljonko maakaasu maksaa Malesiassa, mutta arvioisin että löydön arvo jää alle $200 miljoonaan($5-6 per boe) tässä vaiheessa, jos koko on arvion luokkaa. Etäisyyttä kuivalle maalle näyttäisi olevan noin 40 kilometria, joten voi olla mahdollista että tätä ei kehitetä, jos lähettyviltä ei löydy lisää kaasukenttiä.

LUPE osuu jälleen

27 June 2011

FIRST APPRAISAL WELL CONFIRMS EXTENSION OF THE AVALDSNES FIELD

Lundin Norway AS (Lundin Norway) a wholly owned subsidiary of Lundin Petroleum AB (Lundin Petroleum) is pleased to announce that the first appraisal well, 16/3-4 has confirmed the extension of the Avaldsnes field to the south-east of the 16/2-6 discovery well in PL501 on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS). The well was successfully tested and a comprehensive logging and coring program has been acquired.

Avaldsnes was confirmed as an oil discovery by the Lundin Norway operated well 16/2-6 in 2010 and is located approximately 25 km east of the Lundin Norway operated Luno discovery.

The first appraisal well 16/3-4 was drilled approximately 6.5 km south-east of the discovery well and has proved an oil column of 13,5 meters in excellent quality sandstone of Jurassic age. A high net to gross has resulted in net pay at the appraisal location in excess of that at the discovery well. The data acquired confirms excellent reservoir properties, with average porosity of approximately 30 percent and multi-Darcy permeability. The average production rate was in excess of 5,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day through a restricted choke size of 60/64 inch...

Avaldsnesin brutto(LUPE WI 40%) kooksi arvioitiin aluksi 100-400 miljoonaan tynnyriä ja nyt näyttää että siltä koko on asteikon yläpäässä.

Näköjään

on tullut tehtyä ostoksia. Petromineralesia, Lupea ja ONR:ää lisätty sitten viime perjantain. Brenttu $110-120 ja WTI $100, joten mielestäin Lupe ja PMG eivät ole kalliita. PMG arvostustasoltaan ehkäpä kalliin vastakohta.

Tuo Progress Energyn Montney-JV Petronasin kanssa herätti jälleen kiinnostuksen Terraa kohtaan. Jospa Terrakin löytää rahakkaan kumppanin. En tosin tiedä minkä laatuista TT:n montney on. Pitäisiköhän mahduttaa hieman pussukkaan?

Alvheimissa pätkii

Alvheim FPSO shut in again

Marathon Petroleum has been forced to shut in production from its Alvheim field off Norway for the second time this month due to problems with the FPSO’s fire-fighting water system.

The floating production, storage and offloading vessel again halted output on 15 May, following an earlier shutdown on 5 May at the North Sea field.

A spokesman fof the US operator said that the floater was unable to generate enough water supply to some areas to meet the requirements of the fire water system.

“We have inspected the system and flushed the pipes. The plan is to test the fire water system later today and, if successful , we will start up production,” he said.

Noin kolmannes(12,000 boeta) Lundin Petroleumin tuotannosta tulee Alvheimista, joten kenttä on yhtiölle varsin tärkeä.

LUPE:lla männöö Barentsin mallit uusiksi?

Itseltäni oli näköjään jäänyt lukematta(noh katselematta, enhän minä noista sanoista mitään ymmärrä) Lundinin helmikuinen pääomamarkkinapäivä presentaatio, jossa olikin käsitelty varsin kattavasti Barentsin geologiaa. Presentaatiossa silmiini pisti alla oleva sivu(s.39), jonka mukaan Trias -ja Jurakauden kivet olisivat suurelta osin epäkypsiä LUPEn PL533-blokissa. Tuon kartan kannalta kimuranttia on se että Statoilin ja ENIn Skrugard-löytö osuu selvästi tuonne epäkypsälle alueelle, joten sen ei siis pitäisi olla mahdollinen.

Lehdistötiedotteesta:

The Skrugard prospect has proven oil in the Bear Island fault zone, which is located further north in the Barents Sea than Hammerfest Basin, where the Snøhvit and Goliat fields lie. According to information from the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate, the purpose of the well was to prove petroleum in Middle and Lower Jurassic reservoir rocks, or the Stø and Normela formations. The well proved gas and oil in the Stø formation and oil in the Nordmela formation.

Joko en ole ymmärtänyt lukemaani, Statoil on pihalla eikä ole löytänyt mitään tai sitten Lupen mallissa on vikaa. Jos geolginen malli menee uusiksi olisi kiintoisaa tietää mitä se merkitsee PL533-blokin pohjoispuolella olevan erittäin suuri kokoiselta näyttävän Rautto-prospektin kohdalla.

"France shale permits to be 'scrapped'"

Upstream:

French Prime Minister Francois Fillon said today that permits granted to explore potential shale fields in France must be cancelled and that the whole issue must be reviewed from the start.

TRGL näyttää ottaneen hieman nenukkiinsa. Itselläni salkuissa Lundinia ja Vermilionia, mutta näissä yhtiöissä on runsaasti substanssia ilman Liasin tiukkaa öljyä, joten niiden kurssit eivät tähän ole reagoineet mitenkään.

Ruottalainen Tethys Oil ilmoitti tänään hankkineensa reilun kolmanneksen osuuden Paris Basinin itäpuolella olevasta blokista. Tiedotteessa mainitaan jostain syystä kahdesti "conventional oil". Yrittävätkö vakuutella paikallisia vai vihjailla sijoittajille jotain?
Olen muuten ollut jo neljä vuotta Tethyksen postilistalla, mutta en ole missään vaiheessa omistanut yhtiötä. Ainuttakaan toimariakaan en ole osakkeista tehnyt.

Tällainen pätkä tuli vastaan viime viikolla:

A joint French Ministry press release issued on February 11,
2011, indicates that Vermilion is currently producing
approximately 63 boe/d from two previously stimulated vertical
wells in the Liassic shale in France. VET has approximately
176,000 net acres of land in the Paris basin and is in the process
of acquiring rights to up to 636,000 additional net acres.

Telluksessa öljyä

¨TELLUS - ANOTHER OIL DISCOVERY IN PL338

Lundin Norway AS, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lundin Petroleum AB (Lundin Petroleum), operator of production licence 338, has completed well 16/1-15 on the Tellus prospect as an oil discovery. The well has been successfully tested and a comprehensive logging and coring program has been acquired. The well will now be sidetracked to appraise the Tellus discovery to ensure it will be included in the Luno development program.

Oil was proven in a 50 meter column including a 3 meter thick lower Cretaceous sandstone with excellent reservoir quality overlying porous, fractured basement. The oil is of the same type as found in Luno, and the Tellus discovery is most likely a northern extension of the Luno field.

Two successful reservoir tests have been completed. The first test was perforated in a fractured basement interval and produced 650 BOPD, through a 40/64” choke. This is the first successful full scale basement test on the Norwegian continental shelf. The second test was perforated in the overlying sandstone interval and produced 3900 BOPD through a 40/64” choke. This test showed very good flow properties and good pressure support.

An estimate of the discovered resources will be announced once the sidetrack has been completed.

Lundin Petroleum is the operator of PL338 with 50 percent interest. Partners are Wintershall Norge ASA with 30 percent and RWE Dea Norge AS with 20 percent interest.

Ashley Heppenstall, President and CEO of Lundin Petroleum comments:”We are very pleased with this latest discovery which has proven a likely extension of the Luno field. The location of the Tellus discovery to the Luno field will allow us to fast track the development of Tellus by including it into the Luno development plan.The basement discovery is also material and has the potential to open further prospectivity in the Greater Luno area and provides us with excellent data in relation to the earlier Luno South basement discovery.”

Seismiseen perustuva resurssiarvio ennen porausta oli 40 miljoonaa boeta bruttona. Jos luku osoittautuu oikeaksi niin 50% osuuden arvo ehkä $500 miljoonaa. Tuohon nähden Lundinin osake reagoi laiskasti.

Maallikko kun olen niin piti ottaa selvää mistä tuossa lihavoidussa kohdassa on kyse. Remember Basement in your Oil and Exploration:

The term ’basement rocks’ generates a variety of definitions by geologists depending on the specific sedimentary basin discussed as well as the individual’s experience in that area (Koning, 2003). The “standard” definition of basement can be found in the classic paper by Lands et al (1960) which stated ‘the only major difference between basement rock and the overlying sedimentary rock oil deposits is that in the former case the original oil-yielding formation (source rock) can not underlie the reservoir’.

Vaikea sanoa onko tuolla "kellarikerroksella" arvoa tässä tapauksessa, kun virtaus ei ole kovin voimakas. Ehkäpä tuota voisi kehittää horisontaaleilla(siis ihan tavallisilla horisontaaleilla).

Lundin ja löpölöytö

Lundin Petroleumin tiedote viime viikon perjantailta

Borrningen genomfördes på flanken av en stor struktur och har visat sig innehålla en oljekolumn på 17 meter av utmärkt sandstensreservoar från juraåldern. En omfattande insamling av borrkärnor och loggar har genomförts. Produktionstester har bekräftat en utmärkt reservoarkaraktäristik vid borrningen som flödat till begränsade produktionsnivåer om cirka 5 000 fat olja per dag (bopd) av god kvalitet.

Fyndigheten Avaldsnes uppskattas innehålla utvinningsbara resurser om 100 - 400 miljoner fat oljeekvivalenter (MMboe) i PL501. Ytterligare utvärderingsborrningar krävs för att till fullo avgränsa strukturen och den preliminära planen är att genomföra ytterligare borrningar under 2011.

Löydetyn kentän potentiaalisiksi brutto reserveiksi on arvioitu 100-400 miljoonaa boeta. Lundinin käyttämät termit poikkeavat selvästi pohjois-amerikkalaisesta käsitteistöstä, joten piti oikein tarkistaa mitä recoverable resources meinaa. Ehdin jo luulla tuolla tarkoitettavan samaa kuin DPIIP:llä tai OOIP:llä, mutta käsite näyttäisi vastaavan P3-reservi arviota eli mahdollisia reservejä. Voin olla väärässäkin, toivon mukaan en.
Lundinin osuus PL 501-blokista, jossa Avaldsnes sijaitsee, on 40%, jolloin Lundinin reservi potentiaali on 40-100 miljoonaan boeta.

Lundinin osakkeen perjantain päätöskurssi oli 55.85 ja löytötiedotetta edeltäneen päivän päätös oli 47.22 SEK, nousua siis 8.63 SEK tai 18.3%. Osakkeita on kaikkiaan 317,910,580 kappaletta, jolloin markkina-arvo on noussut n. 2.74 miljardia kruunua, USD-SEK kurssi on tällä hetkellä $1=6.814 SEK eli MA on noussut dollareissa n. 402 miljoonaa.
$400 miljoonaa/40mm boe=$10.20 per boe; $402 mm/ 100 mm boe= $4.02

2P-reservi tynnyrin PV on noin $20-25, joten jos Avaldsnesin resurssit kirjautuvat ensi vuonna uusien kaivojen myötä Lundinille reserveiksi voisi alemman arvion perusteella nähdä Lundinin arvon nousevan toiset 400 miljoonaa dollaria tai 2.7 miljardia kruunua. Jos löytö osoittautuu kooltaan arvioskaalan yläpäähän niin arvo nousee reilusti enemmän (max. 10,880 miljoonaa kruunua?).

Pin ohvia

Tiedote:

"Lundin Petroleum AB (publ) (Lundin Petroleum) is pleased to announce its intention to spin-off its business in the United Kingdom (UK) into a newly formed UK company called EnQuest PLC (EnQuest), in exchange for shares of EnQuest. The shares of EnQuest received by Lundin Petroleum will then be distributed to Lundin Petroleum shareholders"

EnQuest (vaiko Enqvist). On typerä nimi, mutta ovat varmaan ehtineet jo tilata logoidut paprut ja avaimenperät sun muut, joten tuskin vaihtavat vaikka pyytäisin oikein kohteliaasti.

"Based on the 2009 production of Lundin Petroleum and Petrofac, EnQuest's average daily working interest production for the year ended 2009 would have been approximately 13,620 barrels of oil per day (bopd). Gaffney, Cline & Associates (GCA) has certified that as at 1 January 2010, EnQuest had a total of 80.5 MMbbls of net 2P oil and NGL reserves. As at 1 January 2010, GCA has also certified net oil and gas contingent resources for individual assets. The aggregate of the oil contingent resources (2C) on an unrisked basis is 67.5 MMBbl, and of the gas contingent resources (2C) is 30.6 Bcf.** In addition, EnQuest has identified further five exploration opportunities, all of which have been independently reviewed by GCA"

Askel oikeaan suuntaan, mutta silti kohti jorpakkoa. Tiedotteessa ei mainita kuinka monta exploration-lisenssiä Enkvistille siirtyy, mutta resurssipotentiaali näyttää melko vähäiseltä. Oma toive olisi ollut että kaikki Pohjanmeren ja lisäksi Ranskan toiminnot olisi eriytetty omaksi yhtiöksi ja tuo yhtiö olisi tavoitellut maksimissaan 5 prosentin tuotannon/reservien kasvua per vuosi ja tuo yhtiö jakaisi merkittävän osan kassavirrastaan ulos omistajille. Tämän totetuvan viritelmän tuotanto ei näytä mahdollista merkittäviä osinkoja. Ja jos oikein haluaa pessimistiksi ryhtyä niin voisi epäillä noissa spin offattavissa reserveissä on edessä mahdollisia alaskirjauksia.

Pitää katsoa joutuuko käyttämään mahdollisen pompun osakkeen kurssissa ennen osakkeiden jakoa hyväksi. Tuntuma on että Lundinin osto oli virhe. Ei suuri, mutta virhe kumminkin.