Addax Sinopecille

WSJ: Sinopec In C$8.27B Cash Takeover Of Addax Petroleum

"Addax Petroleum Corp. (AXC.T), an oil company with operations in West Africa and Iraq, said Wednesday it has accepted a C$8.27 billion ($7.22 billion) cash takeover offer, including debt, from state-controlled Chinese petroleum and chemicals giant Sinopec International Petroleum Exploration and Production Corp.

The deal is a major strategic step forward for Sinopec, giving it control of operations of the large Taq Taq field in Iraqi Kurdistan and highly prospective exploration acreage offshore Nigeria and Gabon.

The price of C$52.80 per share is at a 47% premium to Addax's closing share price on June 5, the day prior to its announcement that it had received a takeover approach. At 1024 GMT, Addax's London-listed shares were up 15.7%, or 372 pence, to 2740p.

Addax has made "a very clever and timely move," said Global Insight's Middle East analyst Samuel Ciszuk. "Addax has cashed in an initial huge risk," just after it has been allowed to export oil from the Kurdish region of Iraq for the first time, he added.

Sinopec, on the other hand, is taking a political risk, Ciszuk said. "The (Baghdad) oil ministry is adamant that companies involved in Kurdistan are blacklisted from the licensing round in Iraq proper," where Sinopec has other interests, he said.

Sinopec's presence will put political weight behind the Kurdistan Regional Government in its talks with the central government over the validity of the KRG's contracts with foreign companies and who pays the cost of developing oil resources there, Ciszuk said.

It complicates matters for Iraqi oil minister Hussein al-Shahristani, who has taken a tough stance on Kurdistan, but may not have the political backing in Baghdad to take on a powerful Chinese company, he added.

Addax's board of directors recommended shareholders accept the offer and senior executives have entered a lockup agreement to sell their 38% holding in the company to Sinopec..."

Kurdistan matkaa kohti itsenäisyyttä?

Aiemmin yhtiöstä:
Bagdad sallii öljyn viennin DNO:n kentältä


Addax Petroleum Q1

Addaxkin jutskaa

Upstream:

"West Africa and Middle-east focused Addax Petroleum confirmed today that it is in talks with third parties regarding a possible acquisition, following media speculation..."

Sinopecin kanssa ilmeisesti:

"Shares in UK-listed oil explorer Addax Petroleum (AXC.L) soar 8 percent after the South China Morning Post reported that Chinese oil company Sinopec (600028.SS) is working on a bid of up to $8 billion, citing an unnamed sources"

Eipä ollut yllätys. DNO, Addax, Heritage ja Tullow ovat kaikki hyvin todennäköisiä ostokohteita, mutta niiden projektien korkean poliittisen riskin vuoksi ostajien joukko on suhteellisen rajallinen. Verenex olisi reilu puoli vuotta sitten kuulunut joukkoon.

Addax Petroleum Q1

Afrikkaan ja Lähi-Itään keskittyneen Addax Petroleumin ensimmäisen kvartaalin luvut:

Liikevaihto $496 miljoonaa (-49%)
Operatiivinen kassavirta $53 miljoonaa (-36%)
Netto tulos $5 miljoonaa (-98%)
EPS $0.03 (-98%)

Tuotanto
Nesteet 134 700 tynnyriä/päivä (-3%)
Netback US$29.35 (-60%)

Tase

Varat
Lyhytaikaiset $1,041 miljoonaa
Kaikki $5,588 miljoonaa (goodwill 493 miljoonaa)

Velat
Lyhytaikaiset $965 miljoonaa
Kaikki $3,132 miljoonaa

Omapääoma $2,456 miljoonaa

P/E(-), P/B 1.9

Luvut ja presentaatio

Addaxin operaatioihin liittyvä poliittinen riski on selvästi korkeampi kuin keskiverto juniorilla(vaiko onko Addax independent?), mutta niin ovat netbackitkin, ovat melkein 50% korkeampia kuin esim. Talismanilla. Geologinen tai exploration riski Nigeriassa tai Kurdistanissa on selvästi matalampi kuin Meksikonlahdella tai Amerikan-mantereella.

Bagdad sallii öljyn viennin DNO:n kentältä

WSJ

" The Iraqi federal oil ministry said Sunday it will allow the autonomous Kurdish government in northern Iraq to start exporting crude oil in June to world markets after blocking such shipments for the past two years. The Kurds and the central government, which grants all oil-export licenses, have been at odds since 2007 over Iraq's draft hydrocarbons law and oil contracts that the Kurds signed with foreign companies. Despite those issues being still unresolved, Baghdad -- under increased financial strain because of weak oil prices and falling revenue -- will allow the Kurds to begin exporting 60,000 barrels a day from June 1, oil ministry spokesman Assem Jihad said. "We are agreeing to the exports," he said. The Kurds said Friday they would start exports regardless of the ministry's approval. Mr. Jihad didn't say why Baghdad had reversed itself, but it is likely that the central government's need for more revenue played a part in its decision. The government has slashed its 2009 budget three times because of falling oil prices."

Rahan tarve on mitä ilmeisimmin se tärkein syy viennin sallimiselle ja juuri sen vuoksi olen skeptinen sen suhteen kuinka paljon jos yhtään öljyn vientituloista päätyy ulkomaisille kenttien operaattoreille tai edes kurdeille. Irakin oloja suuremmin tuntematta näen että jollei Kurdistan itsenäisty päätyy kaikki Irakin öljyntuotanto valtion kontrolliin kuten muissakin alueen merkittävissä öljyntuottaja maissa. Kallimpiin ja marginaali projekteihin voidaan ottaa mukaan ulkomaisia kuten on tehty offshore kaasussa mm. Qatarissa, mutta kannattavimmat ja matalan geologisen riskin projektit päätyvät valtion syliin. Kuitenkin lähiviikkoina Irakissa mukana olevien yhtiöiden kursseissa pitäisi olla odotettavissa vieläkin kovaa nostetta ja volaa, jota kannattaa hyödyntää.

DNO:n arvo tai arvottomuus on lähes kokonaan Irak-kortin varassa, mutta Heritagella ja Addaxilla on muita suuren potentiaalin ja pienemmän riskin poliittisen riskin projekteja, joten ne eivät täysin romahda vaikka Irakin bileet lässähtäisivät.

Itselläni on siis positio DNO:ssa, mutta myös Addaxin ja Heritagen osto on harkinnassa.

Virmat:
Addax Petroleum (LSE: AXC, TSX: AXC)

DNO International (OSE: DNO)

Heritage Oil (LSE: HOIL, TSX: HOC)

PÄIVITYS

UPSTREAM: Kurdish deals 'illegal and illegitimate'

"The Iraqi Oil Ministry still considers contracts signed by the largely autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) foreign oil companies illegal, despite news this week the ministry would allow exports from Kurdish fields, an official said today."