Saturday, February 7, 2009

73 less

US rig count drops by 73(26 oil, 46 gas, 1 misc.), but the number offshore rigs is up by two. Drilling activity in the United States is now at a 4-year bottom.
Some have noticed a correlation between the price of oil and the Baltic Dry Index and assume that now the BDI has climbed to a three month high, the price of oil will follow up as did in the first half of '08. The BDI/oil price correlation was logical a year ago when the oil supply and demand situation was tight and the global dryshipping fleet is a significant consumer of oil. Today there's a big gap between the supply and demand. Inspite of the drop in drilling activity I still don't think that an equilibrium will be achieved before midsummer and that sustainable upticks are possible.

Friday, February 6, 2009

Obama: Energy an essential part of economic recovery plan

OGJ:
" The president said, "Finally, this plan will begin to end the tyranny of oil in our time. After decades of dragging our feet, this plan will finally spark the creation of a clean energy industry that will create hundreds of thousands of jobs over the next few years, manufacturing wind turbines and solar cells for example, and millions more after that. These jobs and these investments will double our capacity to generate renewable electricity over the next few years."


Reducing oil consumption and/or improving the efficiency of oil usage is essential in getting the American economy back on the of growth and sustainability. However a significant reduction in consumption will require changes that will be painful and will cause resistance.

FP:
"President Obama's New Energy for America plan probably will lead to significant legislation to combat climate change; a bad dream for Canada's oil sands industry"

Diamond Offshore Drilling Q4

Revenues $903.2 million (+35.4%)

Operating income $456.2 million (+59.4%)

Operating margin 50.5% (42.8%)

Income per share $2.11(+77.3%)

Balance sheet

Assets
Current $1.47 billion
Total $4.94 billion

Liabilities
Current $0.50 billion
Total $1.64 billion

P/E 6.9
P/B 2.7

The operating margin for high spec floaters in the fourth quarter was whopping 73%.

Wednesday, February 4, 2009

Drill and thou shall discover

Anadarko Announces Another Deepwater Gulf of Mexico Discovery

Helix hits pay in deep-water US Gulf

BP, RWE Confirm Additional Gas Pay at Offshore Ruby Field

National Oilwell Varco Q4

Q4

Revenues $3,810.2 million (+5%)
Revenue breakdown: Rig technology 55%, Petroleum services % supplies 37%, Distibution services 8%

Operating profit $856.4 million (+49%)

EPS $1.40(+33%)

Order backlog

31.12.2008 $11.1 billion, 30.09.2008 $11.8 billion, 31.12.2007 $9.0 billion

Year-end balance sheet

Assets
Current $9,595.1 million
Total $ $21,399.3 million(goodwill $5,225.0 million)

Liabilities
Current $5,626.6 million
Total $8,666.2 million

On outlook
"While near term economic conditions are challenging, we enter 2009 with a healthy backlog of equipment and technology to deliver to our customers, and a balance sheet with considerably more cash than debt. We believe that the oil and gas industry’s challenge to replace depleting reserves will require upgrading the world’s rig fleet, and we look forward to continuing to help our customers retool their rigs after years of underinvestment.”"


P/E 5.54(FY EPS $4.91)
P/B 1.12, 1.5 ex-goodwill

Press Release

The Grant Prideco acquisition, which was completed on 21. of April is the main reason for the jump in the profits. As a long term buy NOV looks very attractive.

Monday, February 2, 2009

Subsea 7 Q4

Q4 Numbers

Revenue $583.6 million (+3.7%)

Net operating profit $73.3 million(-8.6%)

Pre-tax profit 91.0 million (+12.7%)

EPS(diluted) $0.38(+5.5%)

Balance Sheet on 31.12.2008

Assets
Current 892.0 million
Total $2,012 million (goodwill $98.5 million)

Liabilities
Current $648.7 million
Total $1,313 million

P/B, with today's market value(NOK 5.4 billion=$772 million) 1.11, 1.28 ex-goodwill.


P/E on 2008 earnings($1.74) 2.9

Backlog

Global backlog of $3.3 billion on 31.12.2008, which based 2008 revenues is ~17 month worth of revenue.

Outlook
"Whilst the market outlook will retain a degree of uncertainty for the medium term as a result of the current economic climate, there has been no dramatic deterioration in the subsea market sector. Current indications are that National Oil Companies and major operators are generally maintaining spending levels. The recent announcement from Petrobras advising of a projected increase in Exploration & Production spending over the next 5 years from USD 65 billion to USD 105 billion supports this view.
However, as expected, the anticipated spending of smaller operators has been reduced and, as a consequence, a number of development plans have been re-evaluated and deferred. This has particularly affected the UK Sector of the North Sea (Norway remaining stable) and the Gulf of Mexico where a number of tie-back projects have been postponed.
There are indications of decreases in costs throughout the supply chain and, in conjunction with this, the Company is focused on reducing its costs and improving efficiencies in order to remain competitive in the current market."


Report(.pdf)

Brazil Oil Co OGX Seeks New York Trading For GDRs

DJ Newswire
"RIO DE JANEIRO -(Dow Jones)- Brazilian oil and gas company OGX Petroleo e Gas Participacoes SA (OGXP3.BR) asked local stock regulators Monday to approve trading in the company's Global Depositary receipts in New York..."


OGX's majority shareholder is billionare Eike Batista's EBX.
Unfortunately OGX's acreage in the Santos Basin is quite far away from the Tupi, Carioca and Jupiter discoveries, but the company definitely deserves a closer look.
A corporate presentation from December(in English).

Sunday, February 1, 2009

Bioliq

GCC: Biosyncrude Gasification Process Could Produce Motor Fuel at Cost of Around $3/gallon
"The Bioliq biosyncrude gasification process (earlier post) used in a large plant with a capacity of > 1 Mt/a can produce biosynfuel for about €1.04 per kg or €0.8 per liter (US$3.08/gallon US), according to an analysis by researchers at Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Germany, which is co-developing the process with Lurgi..."

Lurgi is a subsidiary of Air Liquide(Euronext:AI)

Cost estimate for biosynfuel production via biosyncrude gasification(.pdf)

Air Liquide: Second generation biofuels: a new technological step

Catchy name, but an expensive process.